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To Know Who Will Win in November Watch the Generic Congressional Ballot

Possibly the best indicator of how Americans will vote this November [for congress and the presidency] is the "Generic Congressional Ballot [GCB]" which is a survey that asks respondents to say which party's candidate they will vote for in their local congressional race. The respondents aren't given candidate names, just parties, Democrat or Republican. And, even though it just asks about congressional races, it's a great gauge of the general political climate at any given moment, and was amazingly accurate in predicting both the popular vote in the 2016 presidential race and the 2018 congressional midterm elections.

Both Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight track and average the results of dozens of Generic Congressional Ballot Surveys conducted by various polling organizations, updating them regularly. Right now, both organizations have Democrats leading by about 6 points, just two points below their advantage prior to 2018's "Blue Wave" congressional election. But keep an eye on this as November approaches. If President Trump is going to win reelection, the Republican deficit in the GCB would probably have to close to about 2 points. Trump could win again in the Electoral College even if he loses the popular vote by several points.

Over the last year the GCB has been remarkably stable, even during the Ukraine controversy and impeachment hearings. If there is going to be a major shift, it will likely come this summer once Democrats have selected their candidate for President and each party has had its convention.

#polling #2020election

By: Don Lam & Curated Content

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