Polling: Biden Still Leads, Democrats are Favored in the House & Americans are Split on Impeachment
Americans have been remarkably consistent in their political views this year, about nearly everything. As the election heats up after the first of the year, it will be interesting to see if there are major shifts in the Democratic primary race or in Donald Trump's popularity.
1. Democratic Primary: Despite some uneven debate performances and greater public familiarity with his competition, former Vice President Joe Biden still leads the Democratic primary field nationally, and by a substantial margin. The state polls are more of a mixed bag with Sen. Elizabeth Warren leading in California, Mayor Pete Buttigieg ahead in New Hampshire and Iowa, and Biden leading across the South and in Nevada and New York. Sen. Bernie Sanders isn't ahead anywhere in recent surveys, but he comes in a close second or third in many polls.
As usual, the results in New Hampshire and Iowa will scramble things a bit and it's still possible that a candidate like Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has been gaining traction in Iowa, or Sen. Cory Booker could break through with primary voters. Biden is still the favorite to win the nomination, but it's interesting to note that in November 2015 Ben Carson was leading nationally in the Republican primary race. Things can change quickly.
2. Donald Trump is still unpopular nationally: The President's approval rating hasn't changed much in 2019. About 42% of the public still support him and a bit more than 53% disapprove. And, remarkably, positive economic news didn't help him and the Mueller Report, impeachment inquiry, and foreign policy set-backs haven't had much of a negative impact. He is quite unpopular nationally, but has managed to retain a solid base of support in rural areas of the country and in the South.
The head to head polls pitting various candidates against Trump have also been quite steady during the last year. The top tier Democratic candidates all defeat Trump nationally by double-digit margins, but Biden has the largest lead. The state head to head polls are more of a mixed bag and they will be important to President Trump as he tries to pull-off another electoral college victory while almost certainly losing the popular vote nationally.
3. The congressional generic ballot still favors Democrats: The congressional generic ballot is based on polls which ask respondents which party they would vote for in their upcoming election for the House of Representatives. Such polling in 2018 was extremely accurate in predicting that Democrats would recapture the House.
The polling this year looks a lot like it did just before the 2018 midterm elections, with Democrats holding a six point advantage nationally. That may be one of the factors that has motivated 18 House Republicans to retire rather than seek reelection next year.
4. Americans split on Impeachment: The impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives hasn't changed many minds. 57% of Americans think the President committed an impeachable offense, and 63% believe there was an improper quid pro quo between Trump and Ukraine's new President, but only about 47% want the President removed from office. 44% oppose his removal. So, it appears that much of Trump's base has stuck with him thus far.
By: Don Lam & Curated Content