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Pennsylvania is Becoming the Must Win Battleground for Trump

In 2016 Trump flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from blue to red by the thinnest of margins and his campaign this year has been focused on retaining at least one of them. Their thinking has been that if the President can keep Florida and Arizona in his column and win just one of the three Great Lake states again he can eke out a victory in the electoral college.

Early in the year, Trump's strategists viewed Wisconsin as their best option, but that has changed in the last few weeks as Wisconsin polling has been trending toward Joe Biden.

As the election enters into its final stages, the Trump campaign is focusing more and more on Pennsylvania as a must-win state. It has more electoral votes than Wisconsin and could compensate for a loss in Arizona. More importantly, Trump's polling deficit is a bit smaller in Pennsylvania [Trump is currently down by about 4.5% in Pennsylvania and 6.5% in Wisconsin]. So, the President is going all-in on the Keystone State and he will be campaigning there today, the second time this week.

The President's strategists understand that Trump is still viewed as a slight underdog in the state. The President won by just 44,000 votes in 2016, Democrats have a registration advantage, and Joe Biden was born in Scranton, PA. Moreover, Democrats are unlikely to take the state for granted as they did in 2016 and the suburbs around Philadelphia trended more blue in the 2018 midterm elections than they have in the past.

Trump will base his PA campaign on a massive turn-out in south-central Pennsylvania in areas around York, Harrisburg, and Lancaster, in southwest PA in small cities like Latrobe, and in the largely rural northern parts of the state.

The Biden campaign realizes Pennsylvania's importance and the Democratic nominee has visited eight times since June, even campaigning in Shanksville, Somerset County, a region that Trump won handily in 2016. Their strategy is to reduce Trump's advantage in rural areas while expanding their margins in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and the surrounding suburbs.

Both candidates have announced huge ad buys for the home stretch of the campaign so folks in the Keystone State will have lots to ponder before November 3rd.


By: Don Lam & Curated Content

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