Election 2020 Recap; Biden Won With Younger, College Educated Voters & Independents
Votes are still be tallied, but it looks like Joe Biden will win the popular vote by more than six million [51-47%], about four million more than Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin. Biden received overwhelming support from Asian, black and Hispanic voters and expanded the Democratic base in the suburbs around larger cities like Atlanta and Philadelphia by increasing support among college educated voters of all races. He also cut into Trump's advantage with white male voters and did even better than Hillary Clinton with younger voters.
Donald Trump recast the Republican Party in 2016 as the party of older white male evangelicals without college educations and that didn't change this year. He did a few points better with black males and with some Hispanics, but he lost the support of moderates and independents.
Eight Key Takeaways from the Election. The information below is drawn from exit polling data and AP VoteCast, a survey conducted over several days before Nov. 3, continuing until the polls close. There are some interesting differences in the exit polling compared to VoteCast which will be ironed out over the coming months by researchers.
1. Ideologically, the national electorate is pretty equally divided. 24% of voters described themselves as liberal, 38% as conservative, and 38% as moderate. Biden won the election by capturing more support from moderates [64-34%], not from a shift to the left among voters. America is still a center to center-right nation. Demographic changes in the electorate's race and religiosity will move America further left over the next decade, but slowly.
2. Racially, the electorate is increasing diverse and that helped President-elect Biden. According to exit polling, The majority of voters are white [67%], but that percentage declined by about 6 points compared with 2016 and will continue to fall in coming elections.
3. Donald Trump's failure to manage the Covid crisis hurt him among seniors in key battleground states like Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Overall, he won the 65+ vote, but by smaller margins than 2016.
4. Despite his age, Joe Biden did even better than Hillary Clinton with younger Americans [under 30], winning 60% to 36% over Trump. Women aged 18-29 voted for Joe Biden by about 2 to 1.
5. The gender gap isn't going away and Donald Trump's policies and tone didn't help. Biden beat the incumbent by 15 points among women, a bit more than Clinton's margin in 2016.
6. Cubans in Florida backed Trump, but nationally 65% of Latinos voted for Biden, about the same percentage that voted for Clinton in 2016. Still, given Trump's attacks on Hispanics, it's notable that he received a third of their vote. Democrats could have done better voter outreach to this group.
7. College educated voters continue to move toward the Democratic Party. Biden won them 55% to 43%. More importantly, the share of the electorate with a college degree or better, increased from 37 to 41%.
8. Trump kept his commanding lead among evangelical Christians, but Joe Biden captured a larger percentage of Catholic voters than Hillary Clinton. Unaffiliated voters ["nones"], who now make up 21% of the electorate, overwhelming voted for Biden. Jewish voters also favored Biden by more than 2 to 1.
By: Don Lam & Curated Content