Democrats Take a Big Lead in Congressional Generic Ballot Polling
The 2020 election cycle will kick into high gear this fall and all of us will be inundated with polling data about the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. Some of the head-to-head match-up polls [Joe or Bernie v. Trump, for instance] have very little value at this point in the race. However, even this far in advance, congressional generic ballot polling has been highly predictive in past elections. It's simply a measure of which party's candidate the respondent would vote for in their congressional district without mentioning the candidates by name. It takes local personalities out of the equation and measures which party is best connecting with voters.
As early as the summer of 2017, congressional generic ballot polling was signalling a "wave" election favoring Democrats in 2018 and the polling was quite stable right up to election day. If anything, it slightly underestimated the "wave," but that's not unusual because there is a tendency for the generic ballot to shift toward the party out of power as election day approaches.
There are indications that 2020 may be another good year for Democrats. A new generic ballot poll conducted by The Economist/YouGov of registered voters found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate next year compared to 37 percent who would vote Republican. That 11 point lead is up from a 7 point advantage earlier in July. Nate Silver compiles all the generic ballot polling here. Including the YouGov, poll, Democrats have a 6 point advantage thus far. That is close to the generic ballot lead they had in the days leading up to the 2018 election.
By: Don & Curated Content