Changing Voter Demographics are Making Georgia, N. Carolina & Arizona Swing States
It wasn't long ago that Virginia was considered a swing state that often tilted Republican in national contests. George W. Bush won the state twice by fairly large margins even in very close elections. Today, neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden is actively campaigning in the commonwealth and Biden holds a double digit lead in recent polling. What changed? It's all about voter demographics. Due to an increased number of Asians, Hispanics, and a growing college-educated white population, Virginia is no longer a swing state, and "renowned demographer" William Frey doesn't see that changing any time soon.
The same demographic changes are underway in Georgia, Texas, N. Carolina and Arizona, and it's possible that Joe Biden could capture one or more of those historically Republican states. A Democratic win in any of them would probably seal Donald Trump's fate.
Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 because of a big turnout of white voters without a college education and he will probably win that demographic again. However, that group is declining as a percentage of the overall electorate, and Joe Biden holds large leads among whites with college degrees and minorities with or without a college education.
New York Times: "The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million in the past four years, while the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the same period. In key swing states, the changes far outstrip Mr. Trump’s narrow 2016 margins."
For instance, in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina the Biden coalition of college educated and minority voters grew by about a half million since 2016, while Trump's base of whites without a college degree shrank or grew minimally. So, it's no coincidence that Joe Biden is leading or tied with Trump in all three of these long-time GOP strongholds.
The same changes are occurring in Texas, but some pollsters warn that it will evolve more slowly than demographic trends would suggest. Texas has always been more culturally conservative and that is just beginning to change. Still, recent polling shows Joe Biden is essentially tied with the President in a state that Trump won by 9 points in 2016 and Mitt Romney captured by 16. And, early voting totals show a large jump in younger Texans showing up at the polls.
Donald Trump may still find some path to 270 electoral votes on November 3rd, but he will lose the popular vote by a larger margin than in 2016 because of changing voter demographics. And, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas will all be purple battleground states in 2024.
By: Don Lam & Curated Content
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