Biden Still Holds a Large Lead Nationally, But Expect Some Tightening Over the Last 2 Weeks
Historically, presidential races tend to tighten during the last two weeks before an election as voters solidify their choices. In many respects this isn't a normal election year, but I expect to see Joe Biden's current 8-9 point lead nationally shrink to about 5-6 points by November 3rd. The electorate in America is very evenly divided between the GOP and Democrats, and some Republicans will put aside their distaste for Donald Trump to support their party.
However, there is an interesting convergence between three key election indicators taking place with just 14 days to go. The generic congressional ballot [which measures party support], Trump job approval, and head to head polls are statistically in sync. Take a look:
Trump Job Approval:
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Head to Head:
All of these polling averages are from Real Clear Politics which tends to favor Republicans a bit more than FiveThirtyEight in how they weight survey data.
As I have noted before, the generic congressional ballot may be the most accurate measure of the race because it captures "hidden Trump voters," if they truly exist. These "hidden Trump voters" are those that support the President but are too embarrassed to admit it.
The three averages have converged at a 7-9 point Biden advantage and it's been a remarkably stable lead compared to 2016 which seesawed back and forth quite a bit. The generic congressional ballot has barely fluctuated at all during 2020 and the results recently have been nearly identical, across a wide spectrum of polling organizations.
All of this suggests a solid Biden advantage, but we still have two weeks to go, with another debate on Thursday.
By: Don Lam & Curated Content