Will Dems Massive Primary Turnout Advantage Translate Into a Blue Wave?

Millions more Democrats turned out to vote in primaries this year than Republicans. Based on recent history, that bodes well for Democrats in November.

NBC News: “Republican House primaries produced about 24% more votes than they did in 2014. But Democratic House primaries in 2018 produced 89% more votes than they did four years ago…

"That’s nearly a doubling in the number Democratic House votes this year and it’s enough to give Democrats a big lead over Republicans in votes this year. In total, 4.3 million more Democrats voted in House primaries this year than Republicans.”

Primary vote advantages like this have signaled wave elections in the past and can represent "enthusiasm gaps' within the electorate. Democrats seem eager to vote this year, but will that translate into general election success? It has in the past. In 2006 Democrats had a 3 million primary vote edge and captured 30 additional house seats. And, in other elections it's signaled Republican gains.

NBC: "In 2010, when the Republicans rode a massive wave election to gain 63 seats in the House — as well as six Senate seats and numerous governorships — the party had an enormous 4.9-million vote edge in House primaries. And in 2014, the GOP had a smaller 2.2-million vote advantage in the House primary vote and gained 13 seats in the chamber."

So, there does seem to be a correlation between primary vote advantages and success in the general election. However, its just one indicator, so also keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot polls, President Trump's approval rating, and voter enthusiasm polling over the next month. Taken together, they should provide better evidence of whether a "blue wave" might be forming.

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